Pre-electoral period :

(written Nov 15, 2011)

I've just returned to DRC during the month of campaigning prior to Nov 28 presidential and national elections. There is a lot of anticipation in the air, and frankly lots of worry. There is nothing concrete that gives us reason to worry but it's just uncertainty, volatility, and immaturity and cutthroat nature of politics in this region that has people concerned. There are clear signs that these elections will be fraught with intimidation, voter fraud, and muscling in whatever way possible, as the rules of fair play are difficult to enforce here.

For good coverage of the elections, there is a good blog by Jason Stearns, an American human rights researcher, who has a network from which he acquires credible information. I'm keeping my eye on his blog these days, just to get a feel for the situation.

Voting is done by emotions here – so if the incumbent hands out $10 or pieces of printed cloth to a group of poor citizens a few days before the election, they can easily forget the 5 years of corruption and ineffectual governance that has plunged DRC to the very bottom of the Human Development Index, while insecurity at the hands of the national army persists.  Even nations like Niger, Chad and Mali, who have few resources and dictatorship government, are ahead of DRC. It is quite sad, as there is so much potential here…but its only that. I now see the negative sense of the word "potential" – when everything is there, but nothing has yet been done. I'm talking about the state government. Congolese themselves are survivors, habituated to making the best of any situation. They've never been able to expect anything from government, as it has always functioned to siphon off of the people rather than to provide services. Dictators have come and gone and come again, but opposition isn't able to clearly break from this system. So the system may not change no matter what happens. Congolese will survive, but what level of suffering will they be able to endure?