In Exile (observing elections from a distance)

For DRC's recent elections, there was a lot at stake – the rule over a country of 70 million people, which borders 9 countries (Angola, Zambia, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Sudan, Central African Republic, Republic of Congo), and has vast resource wealth. However, the state institutions are being rebuilt after corruption and wars devastated the country. DRC remains impoverished, recently being rated 187 out of 187 countries in the Human Development Index, which measures such indicators as literacy, maternal and infant mortality, life expectancy, and wealth.

The Congolese population has the most at stake as they've have been waiting a long time for their government to start functioning and to stop preying on them. So given recent wars, continued instability, and significant tension, we acted with a lot of precaution. Offices were shut down from Dec 3 – 10, while the election results were tallied and final results announced. I went into exile in Uganda on Dec 4, while waiting for the results to be announced on Dec 6. The electoral commission however delayed the announcement 48 hrs to Dec 8, which was delayed at the last minute until Dec 9. These delays were due to logistical problems and also general disorganization that reigned from the start of the campaigns to the end of voting.

The wait was a bit intense, though we all knew who would be re-elected, as the incumbent stuffed ballot boxes, used state resources and institutions for his campaign, put friends in all major election commission and supreme court positions, and touted democracy the entire way. Shameless! But, given the possibilities (literally anything you could imagine has already happened in DRC), it was still interesting to follow and also to try to gauge what the reaction would be.

Beni, the eastern city where I pass through on my way out of the country, seems like a relatively calm place, but my friends who live there often here gunshots at night, and insecurity is chronic. On voting day (Nov 28), a large group of armed men attacked the central prison, killing the prison guards and freeing over 400 prisoners, allegedly so that they could go vote! Then on the morning of the original results proclamation day (Dec 6), a militia attacked and released more criminals. But then things returned to normal in a few hours. We knew the situation was volatile, but with very isolated incidents across a huge country. Any more disruptive reactions to elections might bend toward a longer-term trajectory or take part in the capital city over 1000 miles west of me. So, I returned from exile for about 8 days. On our return, we passed through an area where a bus had avoided a roadblock set by unidentified armed men and one passenger was killed when they shot through the back windows. This was yet another sobering reminder of the insecurity that plagues the country.

In my village, it was business as usual, though election chatter dominated among my colleagues because the opposition and different observation groups contested the results. After working and planning what needed to be done over vacation and early in 2012, I left again to pass a few days in Beni before vacation officially started. When I arrived there, rumors circulated of imminent attacks, so my bosses told me to just go!

On Tuesday, the incumbent was sworn in while only one head-of-state attended, Robert Mugabe, the 173 year-old Zimbabwean dictator who destroyed their economy. That was a strong sign of the illegitimacy of this regime. Even their closest allies like South Africa, Rwanda, and China were noticeably absent.

Meanwhile, the main opposition leader apparently held his own inauguration ceremony Friday. He was not allowed to hold it in a Kinshasa football stadium as originally planned. He's basically under house arrest, which is fine because he's 78 and likes his house a lot. It seems we're in for a political crisis, which we hope won't degenerate. DRC can't afford it. But they also can't afford for democracy to get trampled all over. Where will the rule of law and justice begin with an administration that abuses it? Development cannot happen without it.

Pre-electoral period :

(written Nov 15, 2011)

I've just returned to DRC during the month of campaigning prior to Nov 28 presidential and national elections. There is a lot of anticipation in the air, and frankly lots of worry. There is nothing concrete that gives us reason to worry but it's just uncertainty, volatility, and immaturity and cutthroat nature of politics in this region that has people concerned. There are clear signs that these elections will be fraught with intimidation, voter fraud, and muscling in whatever way possible, as the rules of fair play are difficult to enforce here.

For good coverage of the elections, there is a good blog by Jason Stearns, an American human rights researcher, who has a network from which he acquires credible information. I'm keeping my eye on his blog these days, just to get a feel for the situation.

Voting is done by emotions here – so if the incumbent hands out $10 or pieces of printed cloth to a group of poor citizens a few days before the election, they can easily forget the 5 years of corruption and ineffectual governance that has plunged DRC to the very bottom of the Human Development Index, while insecurity at the hands of the national army persists.  Even nations like Niger, Chad and Mali, who have few resources and dictatorship government, are ahead of DRC. It is quite sad, as there is so much potential here…but its only that. I now see the negative sense of the word "potential" – when everything is there, but nothing has yet been done. I'm talking about the state government. Congolese themselves are survivors, habituated to making the best of any situation. They've never been able to expect anything from government, as it has always functioned to siphon off of the people rather than to provide services. Dictators have come and gone and come again, but opposition isn't able to clearly break from this system. So the system may not change no matter what happens. Congolese will survive, but what level of suffering will they be able to endure?